MONDAY (29/11/2010) - THANKS RECOGNIA & EDWIN

Hi All,

I'm very happy when somebody contribute to the well being of this blog and become more interesting.  First from Recognia and the next is Edwin from PJ.  Recognia software very good in predicting the next day market.  This software have been used by 20 millions traders & investors worldwide.   For Edwin, he give detail explanation about the volume distribution of blog Share Investors.  I have put it to the right side of my blog, and hope u test it. 

For Monday focus, let look into TWS, KNM, MIECO, GADANG & BPURI

TWS

DOUBLE BOTTOM

 

KNM

BOTTOM TRIANGLE (TARGET 55 - 57 SEN)

MIECO

CONTINUATION WEDGE (TARGET PRICE 1.01 -1.09)

GADANG

DIAMOND BOTTOM (TARGET PRICE 85 - 87 SEN)

BPURI

The Edge Malaysia

"It also appointed Bina Puri-Tim Sekata JV as the main contractor to implement the 17.7 km extension for the Ampang LRT line between Sri Petaling to Putra Heights. The contract value is RM634.64 million and the duration is 27 months".

 

I think this week many will focus on PM announcement on ETP which will benefir O & G sector.  The possible counters u should pay attention are DIALOG, KENCANA, MUHIBBAH and PETGAS. TQ.

SOMEBODY SAY BLACK FRIDAY (26/11/2010)

Hi All,

I'm back late from registering YES YTL at KL Sentral.  Tomorrow, somebody say black friday.  So,...as usual for tomorrow,  AirAsia, DRBHCOM, KNM.

AIRASIA

The Edge:

KUALA LUMPUR: AIRASIA BHD [] posted a strong set of results for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2010, with earnings surging 152% to RM327.28 million from RM130.07 million a year ago.

DRBHCOM

KNM

Target Price 56 sen.  If 56 sen target hit, next resistance is the last gap down 68 sen.  Watch strong resistance at 50.5 sen & 51 sen. 



I'm writing this at 1.22 am.  Nothing much i can do, hopefully u profit tomorrow.  TQ.

TENSION IN KOREA BORDER MAY BE ESCALATE & MAY BE NOT

Hi All,

The US aircraft carrier have been sail to the conflict area to show deterrence to North Korea.  So tension may be cool down this week.  Both countries in full alert for another possible attack and we hope this will not ignite the nuclear war. 

But tonite, DJIA up 120++ pt, consumer spending up and the some optimistic on the job front.  Focus tomorrow for BOUSTEAD, KUCHAI, DIALOG & IGB.

BOUSTEAD

RSI kiss of life, acc/dist up, stochastic oversold, MACD green and above 0,  momentum surge, candlestick  bullish engulfing & rebound from 50 ma support.  Target price 6.00.  Stop loss 5.14.

KUCHAI

As I mention before, candlestick white, divergence acc/dist, MACD green, stochastic up, RSI good.

Watch here.

DIALOG

Big white candlestick confirming the bullish,  indicator equivalent to the BOUSTEAD. 

IGB

Big bullish engulfing candlestick, stochastic oversold, momentum up, RSI up, volume good.

I think Petronas 3 billion project will be coming soon when i look at Oil and Gas counters.  It is a matter of time.  So be patient. 

I scan for 30% volume increase and i get 58 counters.  When run through 1 by 1 counters, almost 95% have either doji (which ever doji), hammer (white or black), white candlestick at or near the support. What is the meaning?  I don't know but i assume bear lost steam and bull will ride tomorrow.  So, what i do, I check the KLCI chart.  Look here.

Class A Divergence (read Alexander Elder book) is when indicators (or oscillators) going up but the price still down.  The chart above tell the price still down but the acc/dist start moving up.  My expectation tomorrow, KLCI will going up and many will show gap up.  May be super bull will be coming if tension cool down and Irish problem has been contained.   So u know what to do.  Good luck.

Note:  Please treated my blog as a guideline only.  It is your decision to buy or sell, not mine since u must be responsible with your capital (money) and whatever decision u will take. 

If u like my blog, please tell the others and my greatest honour if u can sign in as one of the followers.  I purposely do this blog for U and me to learn something from successful traders in this world (by reading his/her books and share the info) and this learning process u can used later for the benefit of your son/daughter. TQ. 

WEDNESDAY (24/11/2010) THE DAY AFTER NORTH KOREA OPEN FIRE + ICE BLENDED MEXICO CHOCOLATE

Hi All,

Nothing much to said.  U know what to do when DJIA drop -100 pt tonite.  There is tension on both North/South Korea and Ireland rescue still unsolved.  Watch your back.  U can buy at discount rate later.  No prediction today.

Now, I like to tell a story.  When I'm working in Kuching, Sarawak in 2006, almost every weekend my wife and I walking + sighseeing at Waterfront Kuching.  This place is tourist destination & attraction especially during night when u can see water dancing following the music, near the observation tower.  Normally, I start from Parkson Grand (beside Riverside hotel) and slowly walking to the observation tower.  There are many hawkers stalls on the left side selling soft drink, bunches of fruits, watches, Gambir Sarawak (i use it when having problem with toothache but many guys used it at dot dot dot).   One afternoon, we are very thirsty after walking almost 1 & 1/2 miles, so we stop at an ice blended stall and order 2 MEXICO CHOCOLATE ice blended. This old lady, I call Untie, quickly produce 2 ice blended for us.  Slurrpppppppppppp..... sangat sedaplah but I always said to Untie "Untie, your ice blended tak sedaplah" .  From that time, when I in Kuching, I never miss to say hello to Untie and order her ice blended MEXICO CHOCOLATE.  Last friday, we went again to the stall after 2 years in Putrajaya and say hello to Untie, order 2 MEXICO CHOCOLATE and "Untie, your ice blended tak sedaplah".  This ice blended stall located exactly opposite new Dewan Undangan Negeri Sarawak (across the river).  I mention this becoz I think this Untie and her ice blended deserved the promotion here and she is not Malay,... but Chinese. Look here.

P/S:  If u need to shake top predictors in Trade Signum, this is the time to make prediction for counters BELOW so & so price.  That why i'm not predicted which counters will going down becoz it is too easy for now.   

TUESDAY (23/11/2010) - SUSPENDED COUNTERS DOESN'T MEAN U MAKE MONEY

Hi All,

I can say both (lucky and unlucky) for the suspension of SUNRISE, KFC and LHH counters recently.   In case of SUNRISE, I make some money.  I'm very eager when entering LHH but have to sell when the news not so good in which i got break even (but still loss commission money).  KFC, lucky day -  I buy on friday morning (4.113) during opening, suspended at 9.30 when the price up to 4.25 (+28 sen) and paper profit at rm 687.  It seem I'm unlucky now when KFC drop - 25 sen during closing.  I buy KFC when i see the chart so good before opening on friday, there was potentially the price will tick up +10 sen higher, so without delay i just buy and suddenly it spike up to 28 sen, and 9.30 am got suspended without any news. I still happy at closing  when i got +14 sen to play on monday but the taking over news not so good.  Tan Sri Halim Saad want to buy QSR at cheaper rate (rm 5.60) compare to the current price rm 5.76.  And of course i'm not surprised today when suspension lifted at 2.30 pm coz, I know the price will drop but don't know how much it will drop.   

Fast forward, lesson learn from this take over, if the offering price below the current price,  for sure the price will drop after suspension.  So, i give warning to CN forum during lunch hour, take care. And I hope everybody will notice it.  

As usual, life must goes on whether u loose or win.  So, for tomorrow,  I have few counters that worth to look at.

COASTAL

There is good news on Coastal Contract on the Edge Malaysia today.  I watch gap during opening.  Long time playing trend trading (sideways).  Stochastic, MACD green, momentum, RSI, volume, good.  Next resistance to watch is 2.42 to breakout sideways.  I suggest u can enter after price hit 2.43.  Next resistance at 2.59.  Stop loss should be 2.21.

BORNOIL

Acc/dist surge up, momentum very good, MACD green, RSI up, stochastic good, volume high.  Watch resistance at 22 sen, target price at 24.5 sen. Stop loss at 18 sen.  Calculate your risk/reward.

KUCHAI

I observed Kuchai lately, waiting to enter when chances arrive.  Today, i see possibility to enter tomorrow.  My advice is to enter when price hit 1.68.  Stop loss at 1.36.  Acc/dist, RSI, stochastic up, MACD green. My projected target 2.2. 

MSPORT

Strong resistance at 52 sen.  Acc/dist, stochastic, RSI up, MACD green, volume high.  Target price 54.5 sen. Calculate your risk/reward.

P/S:  I'm sorry for not updating this blog yesterday.  I just come back from kuching on friday nite, saturday joined big bike convoy from KL,  sponsored by Welly Advance Bikers, Batu Caves to Pasir Panjang, Port Dickson then feel very tired.  On Sunday, I just sleep and take rest.  Riding with speed 150-160 km/hour really consume a lot of my energy & strength to reach destination safely.  TQ.

FRIDAY (19/11/2010) - A TRUE CELEBRATION OF STOCK QUEST ECM LIBRA

Hi All,

Tonite I dedicated this blog to one of my good friends, Mr Austin Goh Kok Yeo (Austin Powers) from JB.  He is the great trader and also the great punter (ha ha ha sori bro, i nail u).  With his dedication, constant support from me and also great advice from CH Wong from Penang, he managed to take Grand Prize position in the 1st Stock Quest ECM Libra competition.  It is my pleasure to have friendship with him.

So, congratulation to Austin Goh Kok Yeo for his great achievement in this competition and "BRAVO ZULU" from me. 

For tomorrow, look at TANCHONG, IJM and KIANJOO.  Good Luck.

THURSDAY (17/11/2010) - WAITING ANXIOUSLY ON LHH-EMIWEST SUSPENSION

Hi All,

I'm waiting to buy AIRASIA or KENCANA on tuesday morning, but both not moving as expected.  At 11.00 am, I buy LHH after all the indicators look good and that morning LHH going up +8 sen.  So i queue at 1.70 for 6 lots and tomorrow after 5 pm, i will know the answer whether LHH will going up or down.

KLCI need retracement for the next push breaking the new historical high,  looking at black hammer at 20ma support, maybe consolidation period have ended and i still waiting tonite DJIA hold at 11,000 pts.

So, next counter i'm keen to explore are:

IJMLAND

Malaysian Finance elaborate more on IJMLAND + MRCB merger.  U can read the news by clicking Malaysian Finance at right side of my blog.  I will buy when IJMLAND break resistance at 2.79.

MEDIA

The Edge Malaysia

Media Prima posted earnings of RM71.87 million for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2010 compared with net profit of RM17.26 million a year ago. Its revenue was RM416.75 million compared with RM206.35 million a year ago. It declared a dividend of four sen a share.

For the nine-months period, net revenue exceed the RM1 billion mark for the first time and profit after tax and minority interest from continuing operations grew from RM39 million in 3Q FY2009 to RM154 million for the same period in 2010, with strong contributions from all media platforms. Its EBITDA margin, which grew from 20% to 24% due to the increase in revenue and effective cost control measures.

“Excluding the negative goodwill arising from the acquisition of The New Straits Times Berhad (NSTP), and other exceptional items, net revenue grew by 23.3% while PATAMI from continuing operations recorded an increase from RM28.6 million for the third quarter of 2009 to RM63.1 million for the same period in 2010,” it said.

FABER

The Edge Malaysia

Maintain buy at RM2.87 with target price of RM4: We are not entirely concerned about the expiry of the original deadline for renewal of Faber’s hospital support services (HSS) concession, given that Pharmaniaga experienced the same thing with regard to the renewal of its pharmaceutical supply concession, which was eventually renewed.

While there is speculation that the government might not renew Faber’s concession for East Malaysia and politics might possibly take priority, we strongly believe that the renewal should be based on track record and performance if the government is truly committed to its transformation plan.

All said, we maintain our “buy” recommendation on Faber at an unchanged target price (TP) of RM4 as the current uncertainty might present a buying opportunity for investors who are still hopeful of a favourable outcome.



TGOFFS

RSI kiss of live,  near to support - cut loss will be minimal, reward higher than risk.

 

SELAMAT HARI RAYA AIDIL ADHA AND HAPPY HOLIDAY

To All Muslim Celebrating Hari Raya Aidil Adha,

"SELAMAT HARI RAYA AIDIL ADHA, MAAF ZAHIR & BATIN".


To All,

"BERHATI-HATI DI JALAN RAYA, PANDU DENGAN SELAMAT"

Selamat Bercuti Raya

TUESDAY (16/11/2010) - WHICH ONE TO CHOOSE

Hi All,

I have SUNRISE but need to ditch it and jump to other counter.  So, maybe tomorrow i sell at best price and look for the highly possible profitable counter.  I have 3 in my mind, but need to choose only one.  So, let see it.

AIRASIA

Rebound from 50ma support, closing with white candlestick hammer, acc/dist spike up,  stochastic & rsi rebound from oversold, volume high,  MACD Green and momentum spike up.  Need to break 20 ma resistance tomorrow.

SAPRES

Forming flag and breakout.  Acc up, MACD green, stochastic acceptable, volume at 50 ma.

KENCANA

When talk about Kencana,  so much u can elaborate about big project, order book, so and so.  To cut long story short,  read below.

KUALA LUMPUR: Kencana Petroleum Bhd and its technical partner London-based Petrofac Ltd have emerged as front runners to bag a US$250 million (RM780 million) engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) job at Block PM313, the Sepat oil field, sources said.

The Sepat oil field is a marginal field in offshores of Terengganu under the purview of the national oil company Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas
Baca link di bawah, latest news.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/177106-kencana-petrofac-jv-front-runners-for-us250m-sepat-job.html

FROM SARAWAK WITH LOVE - THE DOW THEORY

Hi All,

I'm holiday in Kuching for Hari Raya Haji.  Yesterday my family and I, booking online from Jan 2010 for AIRASIA aircraft AK 5220 bound for Kuching at 1350 pm.  The best part is I'm booking for 3 person (myself, wife (with daughter - 1 year old) and my son) but the AirAsia staff give me separate seat (2 seats at 18 E&F) and 1 seat at 3B.  I seat at 3B but my wife and children at 18 E&F.  After seating, my son crying and start walking to find me in the front seat.  So i have to sit at 18 E&F, 2 seat for 4 person.  To make matter worst, my son do not feel comfortable, and move here and there and crying many times.  Just before landing, my son vomitted (tak sempat guna bag muntah) at the aircraft floor and this is because AirAsia fail to provide us 3 seats in a rows.  So, happy cleaning...

I write this lengthy Dow Theory for me and u to learn something which maybe applicable in our trading situation now. I posted KLCI and Dow chart for comparison.  So, take a look. 

DOW THEORY
BOOK      :  Technical Analysis From A to Z 
AUTHOR :  Steven B. Achelis

Overview

In 1897, Charles Dow developed  2 broad market averages.  The "Industrial Average" included 12 blue-chip stocks and the "Rail Average" was comprised of 20 railroad enterprises.  These are now known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

The Dow Theory resulted from a series of articles published by Charles Dow in the Wall Street Journal between 1900 and 1902.  The Dow Theory is the common ancestor to most principles of modern technical analysis.

Interestingly, the theory itself originally focused on using general stock market trends as a barometer for general business conditions.  It was not originally intended to forecast stock market.  However, subsequent work has focused almost exclusively on this use of the Theory.

Intrepretation

The Dow Theory comprises 6 assumptions:

1.  The Averages Discount Everything.

An individual stock's price reflects everything that is known about the security.  As new information arrives, market participants quickly disseminate the information and the price adjusts accordingly.  Likewise,  the market averages discount and reflect everything known by all stock market participants.

2.  The Market Is Comprised Of the 3 Trends.

At any given time in the stock market, 3 forces are in effect:  Primary trend, Secondary Trend and Minor Trend.

A.  Primary Trend

The Primary trend can either be a bullish (rising) market or a bearish (falling) market.  The primary trend usually lasts more than one year and may last for several years.  If the market is making successive higher lows and higher highs, the trend is up.  If the market making successive lower highs and lower lows, the trend is down.

B.  Secondary Trend

The Secondary trend are intermediate, corrective reactions to the primary trend.  These reactions typically last from one to 3 months and retrace from one-third to 2 third of the previous Secondary trend. The following FBMKLCI show Primary trend, Secondary trend and Minor trend.

The following chart shows a Primary Trend (line "A") and 2 Secondary Trend (line "B & C"). 

C.  Minor Trend

Minor trends are short term movements lasting from one day to three weeks.  Secondary trends are typically comprised of a number of Minor trends. The Dow  Theory holds that, since stock prices over the short-term are subject to some degree of manipulation (Primary and Secondary trends are not),  Minor trends are unimportant and can be misleading.

3.  Primary Trend Have 3 Phases

A.  The First Phase.

The Dow Theory says that the First phase is made up of aggressive buying by informed investors in anticipation of economic recovery and long term growth.  The general feeling among most investors during this phase is one of "gloom and doom" and "disgust".  The informed investors, realizing that a turnaround is inevitable, aggresively buy from these distressed sellers.

B.  The Second Phase.

The Second Phase is characterized by increasing corporate earnings and improved economic conditions.  Investors will begin to accumulate stock as conditions improve.

C.  The Third Phase.

The Third Phase is characterized by record corporate earnings and peak economic conditions.  The general public (having had enough time to forget about their last "scathing") now feels confortable participating in the stock market- fully convinced that the stock market is headed for the moon.  They now buy even more stock, creating a buying frenzy.  It is during this phase that those few investors who did the aggresive buying during the First Phase begin to liquidate their holdings in anticipation of a downturn.

The following chart of the Dow industrials illustrates these 3 phases during the years leading up to the October 1987 crash. 

In anticipation of a recovery from the recession, informed investors began to accumulate stock during the First Phase (box A).  A steady stream of improved earnings report came in during the Second Phase (box B), causing more investors to buy stock.  Euphoria set in during the Third Phase (box C), as general public began to aggresively buy stock.

If u look carefully, at the last drop from box C is happening now in KLCI

4.  The Averages Must Confirm Each Other

The Industrials and Transports must confirm each other in order for a valid chang of trend to occur.  Both averages must extend beyond their previous secondary peak (or trough) in order for a change of trend to be confirmed.

The following chart shows the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports at the beginning of the bull market in 1982. 

5.  The Volume Confirms The Trend

The Dow Theory focuses primarily on price action.  Volume is only used to confirm uncertain situations.

Volume should expand in the direction of the primary trend.  If the primary trend is down, volume should increase during market declines.  If the primary trend is up, volume should increase during market advances. 

The following chart shows expanding volume during an uptrend, confirming the Primary Trend.



6.  A Trend Remains Intact Until It Gives A Definite Reversal Signal

An uptrend is defined by as series of higher low and higher high.  In order for an uptrend to reverse, prices must have at least one lower high and one lower low.

When a reversal in the primary trend is signaled by both the Industrials and Transports, the odds of the new trend continuing are at their greatest.  However, the longer a trend continues, the odds of the trend remaining intact become progressively smaller.  

Note: Tomorrow (Monday - 15/11/2010) pls watch TCHONG, TGOFFS, SEG and KKB. 



FRIDAY 912/11/2010) - JUST COME BACK & PACKING AGAIN TO KUANTAN

Hi All,

This is my daughter picture receiving her award,  a book and certificate of recognition.  This evening, I depart from Lumut at 5.30 pm, stop by at Kuala Selangor for quick visit to funfair and arrived Putrajaya at 12.00 am.  Tomorrow should wake up early at 5 am and drive to Kuantan for giving short presentation. 

Let talk about our business.  I watch oil and gas (O&G) counter, some break resistance, other charted historical high, some still fail to perform.  U have to watch MUHIBAH, SAPCRES, KENCANA,  WASEONG, PETRA, PERISAI, VITROX (not sure if in O&G sectors), PETGAS, SIGGAS and  TGOFFS.

TGOFFS

Acc/dist low,  doji near 20ma resistance, stochastic closed to 20% line, rsi spike up, ADI good and momentum surge.  If price cross above 1.62, i assume it will going up.  News says everybody will get their cake portion from  rm 3 billions next year but the question is which company get the bigger part. So, look here:

SUNRISE/UEMLAND

I have 3.8 lots SUNRISE, buy from yesterday at price 3.16.  Today closed with white candle and up 4 sen from yesterday. Since SUNRISE related with UEMLAND, I also check the chart for consistency.  UEMLAND jump from yesterday closing, 1 sen gap that I think it is enough to  move higher.  Tomorrow is the last chance for u to grab 5 sen dividen on 15 nov and another one 26.67 sen on 18 nov.  So, up to u...



I still watch KBUNAI and HOVID.  KBUNAI closed with doji at 20ma support but HOVID show white candlestick.  Good luck.

THURSDAY (11/11/2010) - CELEBRATING MY DAUGHTER IN HER SCHOOL

Hi All,

I'm in Lumut, Perak to celebrate my daughter, Nur Aisyah Zafirah for Number 1 position in her class 2A1 after examination.  So tomorrow will be her D-day and i'm so proud of her.  I will posting her award ceremony tomorrow in the blog.

I'm big fan of CMSB and HSL, but today i more focus on HSL.  This is Sarawak counter, FA good and  management as good as SUNRISE. Today going up and waiting to test resistance at 1.90.  A good news as below:

KUALA LUMPUR: HOCK SENG LEE BHD 

has secured a RM67.34 million contract to build the Tuie/Supa/Manggut Road in Betong, Sarawak.


It said on Wednesday, Nov 10 it has signed a sub-contract agreement with Adiqa Engineering Sdn Bhd to undertake the project.

“The scope of works includes earthworks, road, drainage and other related works. The works of the project will be due to be completed by May 2013,” it said.
Hock Seng Lee said the contract is expected to contribute positively to the earnings and net assets of the group for the financial years ending 2010 to 2013.

MALTON

I'm not yet play this counter.  But looking for the last chart, I projected the possible highest price Malton can achieve after break resistance today.  The 1.06 price is the resistance from 2004.  So, look good and up to u.

KBUNAI

I saw triple bottom and draw it for your attention.  Big project as PM announcement and today closing with doji candlestick.  May be good as day trading tomorrow.  Put it under your radar, sonar, direction finder, fish finder or any other terms that u like to use. 

I realised that profit for rubber counters increased compare with 2Q last year. That counters are Latex (+ 23.5%) and  Hartalega (+42%).  So far, only Supermx  fail to perform as expected.  I still think we need to wait for all rubber counters announce their profit/loss before make judgement on next step to be taken in trading. 

Not many I can write here when time now at 2.17 am.  I hope u have your plan for trading tomorrow.  Do not hesitate to cut loss as quickly as u can when touch stop loss and let the profit grow  until u confirm sign of reversal appear.  TQ.

"IF U FAIL TO PLAN, U ARE PLANNING TO FAIL"

WEDNESDAY (9/11/2010) - POTENTIAL MOVING UP COUNTERS

Hi All,

I'm distracted with something yesterday. A bit bz.  But live must goes on.  I like to mention today, i'm waiting for YTLPOWER for so long.  Last page in page Accumulation and Distribution i have put one example of acc/dist (IE ytlpower) and bollinger band possible break out.  Today break 2.35 and surge like no body business to 2.76 before closing 2.60.  .  Waiting for breakout need patient and if u really patient,  in one month u need to trade only for 5 times to gain rm 5k. Easy....?  Of course not.  But I have proven to u, from SUNRISE, i gain rm 2700++, and YTLPOWER today for 1 hour (becoz of meeting), I gain rm400++.  So, tomorrow another intraday with YTLPOWER and after that, jump into band wagon of SUNRISE.  Enough said, chart tell thousand words.

YTLPOWER

Today

From Last Accumulation/Distribution Page

GADANG

GPACKET

MEDIA

HOVID